Aside from all the above I’ve played the same champ Roxie meme deck spamming hives while not paying attention at all for something like 6 months. There’s only 4 or 5 active opponents I should concentrate on while playing and I only see them a handful of times a week at most.
A couple are rogue and a couple are asc. Their decks aren’t hard counters to the dumb deck I play; they simply play better than the other 99% of the opponents.
Point being, asc and rogue seem to be fairly balanced vs each other.
Nash is nash, you draw a perfect rush and hope your opponent draws badly or you lose.
Avasa specifically is the weakest and most out of balance commander and desperately needs a buff to compete in 1v1s. For 2v2s dunno avasa might still be good there who knows is 2v2 still a thing?
Further, it’s even tougher to have a good feel on balance with the current state of the game. There’s people that used to be tougher to beat and there have been no balance changes and I haven’t changed my deck at all. Perhaps they are bored and changed their decks to keep things interesting. Perhaps they also are just mindlessly throwing down cards like me because ranked is pretty unmotivating with these arenas and my mindless habits work out better